Financing Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction through the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework

Publications

12 May 2026

External Publications

Dmytro Boyarchuk

Marek Dabrowski

Dmytro Boyarchuk

Senior Fiscal Expert
Marek Dabrowski
Expertise:  Background: Current Positions: Previous Positions: Visiting Professor, Central European University, Vienna (2023 – 2024) Dr Marek Dabrowski is a Non-Resident Scholar at Bruegel, Brussels, and Fellow at CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw. He was a co founder of CASE (1991), former Chairman of its Supervisory Council and President of … <a href="https://case-research.eu/publications/financing-ukraines-recovery-and-reconstruction-through-the-2028-2034-multiannual-financial-framework/">Continued</a>

Articles from this author:
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  This publication examines how much fiscal room Russia still has under wartime conditions. It focuses on public finances, debt, inflation, and the broader macroeconomic effects of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.
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  This study explores the evolution and prospects of economic relations between the European Union and the Republic of Moldova.
- Eastern European Economies Amidst Global and Regional Shocks
  This report examines the economic and geopolitical challenges in the EU's Eastern neighbourhood. It analyzes macroeconomic stability, financial resilience, trade, and energy security, offering policy recommendations for regional stability and growth.
Author’s articles

The briefing requested by the BUDG Committee of the European Parliament analyses financing for Ukraine’s post-war recovery and reconstruction through the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028-2034 and from other sources. Authors present their assumptions regarding Ukraine’s future aid needs, including post war recovery and reconstruction and sources of its financing.Briefing also includes estimated war damages and recovery and reconstruction needs in the regions remaining under the control of the Ukrainian authorities based on the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5). In the end there is a summary of the aid offered to Ukraine so far, its sectoral structure, donors, financing forms, and the portion spent on reconstruction and repairs. The subsequent sections discuss the potential EU, including the MFF for 2028-2034, and non-EU sources of financing Ukraine’s post-war recovery and reconstruction, the obstacles to the mobilisation of sufficient resources, and ways of overcoming them. The final section presents a summary of policy conclusions and recommendations.

The conclusions and recommendations included, amongst other things:

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine may not end in 2026 or even 2027. This means that the EU plans to support Ukraine in the MFF 2028-2034 must be flexible and consider not only the post-war recovery and reconstruction scenario.
The MFF proposal includes sufficient flexibility with respect to the purpose of spending. However, the size of the proposed budget allocations is insufficient, especially under the pessimistic scenario in which the war continues beyond 2027.
The proposed allocation is also smaller than the EU aid delivered in 2022-2025 and declared for 2026-2027. It does not consider all consequences of a reduction in US aid under the second Trump administration and the limited role of other official donors. Finally, the dominant role of lending ignores the current high level of Ukraine’s sovereign debt, which exceeds 100% of GDP. On the other hand, budgetary guarantees can encourage private sector engagement in the recovery and reconstruction process.
Increasing the size of the Ukraine Reserve allocation, with a dominant role for grants rather than loans already at the planning stage, will help reduce the likelihood of an MFF revision or the need to look for off-budget sources of financing aid to Ukraine as we have seen repeatedly in the current MFF period.
The conditionality attached to EU aid should stimulate not only EU accession-related reforms and responsible macroeconomic policies but also a radical improvement in the business and investment climate in Ukraine.

Please note: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research based in Warsaw, Poland is not affiliated with the organisation CASE – Center for Analysis and Strategies in Europe based in Cyprus.

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Financing Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction through the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework

Dmytro Boyarchuk

Marek Dabrowski

Articles from this author:

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Financing Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction through the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework

Dmytro Boyarchuk

Marek Dabrowski

Articles from this author:

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