Eastern European Economies Amidst Global and Regional Shocks

Publications

1 Apr 2025

Trade & Macro

CASE Reports

Jan Hagemejer

Marek Dabrowski

Christopher A. Hartwell

Olga Popova

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Jan Hagemejer

Macroeconomics and Trade Director
Jan Hagemejer’s areas of expertise are international trade as well as macroeconomic and structural issues. He graduated from University of Warsaw where he also obtained his PhD and habilitation, as well as from Purdue University (MA in Economics). He works as an associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. Prior to … <a href="https://case-research.eu/publications/eastern-european-economies-amidst-global-and-regional-shocks/">Continued</a>

Articles from this author:
- Future outlook of EU-Moldova trade and investment relations
  This study explores the evolution and prospects of economic relations between the European Union and the Republic of Moldova.
- Shortening and simplifying EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations with a view to practices favourable for SMEs
- An update on the economic, sustainability and regulatory effects of the trade part of the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement
Author’s articles
Marek Dabrowski
Expertise:  Background: Current Positions: Previous Positions: Visiting Professor, Central European University, Vienna (2023 – 2024) Dr Marek Dabrowski is a Non-Resident Scholar at Bruegel, Brussels, and Fellow at CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw. He was a co founder of CASE (1991), former Chairman of its Supervisory Council and President of … <a href="https://case-research.eu/publications/eastern-european-economies-amidst-global-and-regional-shocks/">Continued</a>

Articles from this author:
- Future outlook of EU-Moldova trade and investment relations
  This study explores the evolution and prospects of economic relations between the European Union and the Republic of Moldova.
- 172nd mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings: The growing public debt and the associated risks
  The mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings No. 172 “The growing public debt and the associated risks” consists of two articles: “The increasing risk of sovereign insolvency and a new global financial crisis in the post-COVID-19 era” authored by Marek Dąbrowski, and “Will Poland fall into the debt trap?” authored by Jakub Karnowski and Marek Rzońca. … Continued
- Economic recovery and inflation
  In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that … Continued
Author’s articles
Christopher A. Hartwell

Prof. Hartwell’s research concerns transition dynamics, the economics of institutions, and financial sector development. He has published in prestigious political science and economics journals such as Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Explorations in Economic History, JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Regional Studies, and Post-Communist Economies, and regularly appears in print and other media commenting on economic issues of the day. In addition to his academic work, he has advised governments and the private sector on economic policy issues in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosovo, among others. In his earlier position with the Moscow School of Management – SKOLKOVO, he led the Institute for Emerging Market Studies’ (IEMS) work in finance and institutional research. He also worked for the World Bank Group in Tonga as the IFC’s in-country representative and for the US Department of the Treasury in Washington DC.
Olga Popova

The Eastern neighbourhood of the European Union (EU), comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, has faced persistent economic and geopolitical challenges. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, these nations have grappled with economic transition, political instability, and repeated global crises, including the 2008 financial crash, the 2014–2015 commodity price decline, the COVD-19 pandemic, and the ongoing inflation surge. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has further exacerbated these difficulties, disrupting trade, investment, and energy security while affecting economies across the region.

This comprehensive report: Eastern European Economies Amidst Global and Regional Shocks published in series CASE Report analyses the economic impact of these crises, focusing on four key areas: macroeconomic stability, financial sector resilience, external trade and investment, and energy security. While Moldova has been particularly affected by war-related disruptions, Armenia and Georgia have experienced benefits from increased trade and migration inflows from Russia. Additionally, political instability, the rise of authoritarianism in several states, and unresolved territorial disputes continue to shape economic policies and growth prospects.

The authors of this report: Marek Dąbrowski, Jan Hagemejer, Chris A. Hartwell, Vladimir Otrachshenko and Olga Popova are distinguished experts in economics, international trade, financial policy, and environmental economics, with extensive experience in academic research, policy advising, and global economic development. Their collective expertise provides valuable insights into the economic challenges facing the Eastern neighbourhood of the EU, offering well-founded policy recommendations for stability and resilience in the region.

The report provides a comparative analysis based on international and national data sources, covering data from 2007 to 2023. Whenever possible, authors add the forecasted data for 2024 and 2025. It highlights vulnerabilities in the region’s economies and offers policy recommendations to promote stability and resilience.

The study has been put together under the project on ‘Increasing the Economic Resilience of Armenia, Georgia and Moldova’ carried out by CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw in partnership with MODEX LLC in Yerevan, the Economic Policy Research Centre in Tbilisi, and Expert-Group in Chisinau.

In the earlier stage of this project, three country case studies were published: on Armenia, on Moldova, and on Georgia.
The project benefited from generous support provided by the Foundation Open Society Institute, grant number OR2023-90290.

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