Future outlook of EU-Moldova trade and investment relations

Publications

25 Sep 2025

Trade & Macro

External Publications

Jan Hagemejer

Marek Dabrowski

Jan Hagemejer

President of CASE Management Board
Jan Hagemejer’s areas of expertise are international trade as well as macroeconomic and structural issues. He graduated from University of Warsaw where he also obtained his PhD and habilitation, as well as from Purdue University (MA in Economics). He works as an associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. Prior to … <a href="https://case-research.eu/publications/future-outlook-of-eu-moldova-trade-and-investment-relations/">Continued</a>

Articles from this author:
- VAT gap in Europe. Edition 2025
  The report provides an updated analysis of the VAT compliance gap and the VAT policy gap across EU Member States, as well as selected EU candidate and potential candidate countries, covering trends over the period 2019-2023 and, for the first time, including selected EU candidate and potential candidate countries. It examines the discrepancy between the theoretical VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) and actual VAT revenues, offering insights into inefficiencies in tax compliance and revenue losses driven by policy choices.
- Shortening and simplifying EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations with a view to practices favourable for SMEs
- An update on the economic, sustainability and regulatory effects of the trade part of the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement
Author’s articles
Marek Dabrowski
Expertise:  Background: Current Positions: Previous Positions: Visiting Professor, Central European University, Vienna (2023 – 2024) Dr Marek Dabrowski is a Non-Resident Scholar at Bruegel, Brussels, and Fellow at CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw. He was a co founder of CASE (1991), former Chairman of its Supervisory Council and President of … <a href="https://case-research.eu/publications/future-outlook-of-eu-moldova-trade-and-investment-relations/">Continued</a>

Articles from this author:
- Eastern European Economies Amidst Global and Regional Shocks
  This report examines the economic and geopolitical challenges in the EU's Eastern neighbourhood. It analyzes macroeconomic stability, financial resilience, trade, and energy security, offering policy recommendations for regional stability and growth.
- 172nd mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings: The growing public debt and the associated risks
  The mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings No. 172 “The growing public debt and the associated risks” consists of two articles: “The increasing risk of sovereign insolvency and a new global financial crisis in the post-COVID-19 era” authored by Marek Dąbrowski, and “Will Poland fall into the debt trap?” authored by Jakub Karnowski and Marek Rzońca. … Continued
- Economic recovery and inflation
  In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that … Continued
Author’s articles

A new study requested by the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade (INTA) explores the evolution and prospects of economic relations between the European Union and the Republic of Moldova.

The report shows how the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) have reoriented Moldova’s economy towards the EU since 2014. By 2024, the EU accounted for 67% of Moldova’s exports and 50% of its imports, with total bilateral trade reaching EUR 7.6 billion. The EU has also become Moldova’s main investor, holding nearly 70% of the country’s foreign direct investment stock.

The authors underline that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine exposed Moldova’s strategic vulnerabilities – from energy crises to disrupted transit routes – but also accelerated its European integration. Accession negotiations began in June 2024, while the Moldova Growth Plan (EUR 1.9 billion for 2025–2027) ties financial support to reforms in the rule of law, public administration, energy, and infrastructure.

Conclusions

Looking ahead, the outlook for EU-Moldova trade and investment relations is largely positive. The combination of the modernised DCFTA, the Moldova Growth Plan, and the accession process is expected to foster deeper economic integration, resilience, and quicker convergence with EU living standards. Moldova’s economy is likely to grow faster, diversify its exports, and attract higher-quality investments.

For the EU, Moldova’s successful integration would strengthen the eastern neighbourhood, demonstrate the transformative power of enlargement, and serve as a model for other candidates. This will require consistent reform efforts on Moldova’s side and sustained EU support. Despite challenges – from structural weaknesses exposed by the war in Ukraine to political instability and energy vulnerabilities – Moldova’s trajectory from partnership to EU candidate status already represents one of the most successful examples of European integration in the Eastern neighbourhood.

Recommendations

The study suggests that the European Parliament and the EU could:

Regularly assess EU-Moldova trade dynamics and progressively deepen liberalisation beyond the 2027 DCFTA review.
Introduce semi-automatic quota increases for Moldovan agri-food products when utilisation exceeds 85% for two consecutive years, while retaining safeguards for EU producers.
Support pilot programmes for Moldova’s participation in selected Single Market sectors (e.g. industrial components, ICT services) before full accession.
Advocate Moldova’s early integration into the Digital Single Market, including cooperation on cybersecurity, digital identity, and data governance.
Ensure that further trade liberalisation is explicitly tied to Moldova’s compliance with EU acquis, particularly in sanitary, phytosanitary and technical standards.
Strengthen technical assistance and twinning programmes to help Moldovan regulators and SMEs meet EU standards and prepare for the Common Transit Convention and the New Computerised Transit System.

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