Ex post Evaluation of Macro Financial Assistance Operations in Moldova
The main objective of this ex-post evaluation is to evaluate the EC's macro-financial assistance (MFA) operations in Moldova in order to learn key lessons that can be applied to future interventions and/or to determine whether a reorientation of the present approach is needed. The evaluation questions broadly focus on three core areas of effects: macroeconomic stabilization, sustainability of the external financial situation, and structural reforms.
For the attribution of effects to the MFA operation, we follow a five step approach in accordance with the Guidelines for ex post evaluation of MFA.
The first step is to describe the MFA operation in terms of its design, objectives and its relevance. This step has for a large part been concluded and results are incorporated in this inception report.
The second step is to identify the gross macroeconomic and structural effects. These gross effects are equal to the observed developments after the disbursement of the grant. To a large extent, we have finalised this second step and we report on the findings in this report.
The third step is to establish a counterfactual situation. This refers to the most likely scenario in the domain of macroeconomic stabilisation and structural reform in case no MFA would have been granted to Moldova.
In determining the counterfactual situation we will also include the analysis of the unexpected and indirect effects of the MFA operation. This third step needs evidence that can only be collected by interviews with key stakeholders of the international financial institutions (IFIs) and the Moldovan government. This will be part of the next phase of this evaluation.
The fourth step involves the determination of the net effects of the operation. The net effects follow out of the comparison between observed/expected developments and the counterfactual situation.
In the final step, conclusions are drawn on the design of the MFA approach.
To conduct the three steps of the evaluation approach, we will collect data by means of a variety of evaluation methods. Our conclusions will in most cases be based on the triangulation of the findings of the various sources.
Analysis of the documents available in the files of the European Commission has already been concluded. Also, the review of documents from the main IFIs (World Bank and IMF) has been done and results are included in this Inception Report. Further analysis and search for additional documents will continue in the next phase.
Interviews with key officials
In addition, the first round of interviews with EC officials in Brussels has been conducted. The findings are incorporated in this report. In the next phase, we will interview stakeholders of the Moldovan authorities and IFIs.
The modelling approach is mainly used to derive the quantitative implications of the counterfactual scenario for the main macroeconomic variables.
To explore cause-and-effect relations between the MFA and actual reforms in Moldova, previous evaluations focused on a few conditionalities in depth by means of specific case studies.
To collect and report the perceptions of the key stakeholders on the counterfactual in a structured and transparent manner, we will conduct a two-round Delphi questionnaire.
At the end of the evaluation, we will discuss our findings and preliminary conclusions and recommendations in a workshop with the main stakeholders in Chisinau.
European Commission, Directorate for Economic and Financial Affairs
ECORYS Netherlands BV