mBank – CASE Seminar Proceedings

The Polish Deal: The economic consequences of the proposed new tax system

At a public conference of the three-party governing coalition – Law & Justice, Poland of Solidarity and Jarosław Gowin’s Alliance – on May 15 2021, a program called the Polish Deal was presented.

In this publication, which was created based on the 170th mBank-CASE Seminar, we analyze one of its parts: the far-reaching proposals for changes in the tax system. The analysis we present here isn’t comprehensive, which would require a broad report, but partial: it covers potential economic effects, in selected areas.

One of the goals of the Polish Deal is “the fastest possible return to the path of economic growth,” but the document contains no analysis of whether and how the changes in taxes will affect medium- and long-term growth. Nor are there any estimates of how they will affect the labor market, the propensity to invest (leaving aside the question of special tax relief for investors and the plan for huge government investment in infrastructure).

So we asked economic experts to evaluate the effects of the proposed changes in the tax system: Dr. hab. Michał Myck, director of the CenEA research center; Kajetan Trzciński, Research Economist in CenEA; Warsaw University Professor Joanna Tyrowicz and Dr. Paweł Wojciechowski, vice president and chief economist of the organization Employers of Poland.


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