The publication addresses the key challenges facing the European Union’s trade policy amid rising protectionism, the fragmentation of the global economy, and a changing geopolitical landscape. It focuses on shifts in US tariff policy in 2025, their implications for the EU and Central and Eastern European countries, and the role of preferential trade agreements in the new global trade environment.
Jan Jakub Michałek and Jan Hagemejer analyse the economic consequences of US tariffs for Central and Eastern European countries, examining their impact on trade, production, and welfare using a computable general equilibrium model (CGE, GTAP). Jan Hagemejer and Jan Sadowski, in turn, explore the role of preferential trade agreements in the trade of the Visegrád Group (V4) countries and the potential effects of the EU–Mercosur agreement.
The two analyses are complemented by expert commentaries. Marek Wąsiński of the Polish Economic Institute discusses the factors shaping Poland’s potential gains and losses from EU trade policy in an era of protectionism. Przemysław Woźniak of the European Commission examines the tariff shock from the perspective of transatlantic linkages within global value chains.
The publication is the 187th and final issue of the mBank–CASE Seminar Proceedings. It builds on the seminar held on 9 October 2025, which marked the conclusion of the long-standing joint project between CASE and mBank.
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