The Eastern neighbourhood of the European Union (EU), comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, has faced persistent economic and geopolitical challenges. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, these nations have grappled with economic transition, political instability, and repeated global crises, including the 2008 financial crash, the 2014–2015 commodity price decline, the COVD-19 pandemic, and the ongoing inflation surge. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has further exacerbated these difficulties, disrupting trade, investment, and energy security while affecting economies across the region.
This comprehensive report: Eastern European Economies Amidst Global and Regional Shocks published in series CASE Report analyses the economic impact of these crises, focusing on four key areas: macroeconomic stability, financial sector resilience, external trade and investment, and energy security. While Moldova has been particularly affected by war-related disruptions, Armenia and Georgia have experienced benefits from increased trade and migration inflows from Russia. Additionally, political instability, the rise of authoritarianism in several states, and unresolved territorial disputes continue to shape economic policies and growth prospects.
The authors of this report: Marek Dąbrowski, Jan Hagemejer, Chris A. Hartwell, Vladimir Otrachshenko and Olga Popova are distinguished experts in economics, international trade, financial policy, and environmental economics, with extensive experience in academic research, policy advising, and global economic development. Their collective expertise provides valuable insights into the economic challenges facing the Eastern neighbourhood of the EU, offering well-founded policy recommendations for stability and resilience in the region.
The report provides a comparative analysis based on international and national data sources, covering data from 2007 to 2023. Whenever possible, authors add the forecasted data for 2024 and 2025. It highlights vulnerabilities in the region’s economies and offers policy recommendations to promote stability and resilience.
The study has been put together under the project on ‘Increasing the Economic Resilience of Armenia, Georgia and Moldova’ carried out by CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw in partnership with MODEX LLC in Yerevan, the Economic Policy Research Centre in Tbilisi, and Expert-Group in Chisinau.
In the earlier stage of this project, three country case studies were published: on Armenia, on Moldova, and on Georgia.
The project benefited from generous support provided by the Foundation Open Society Institute, grant number OR2023-90290.
