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The repercussions of US agri-food tariffs on EU regions

Publications

30 Mar 2026

Sustainable policies

Trade & Macro

Jan Hagemejer

Agnieszka Maj

Jan Sadowski

Karolina Zubel

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Jan Hagemejer

President of CASE Management Board, Macroeconomics & Trade Director
Jan Hagemejer’s areas of expertise are international trade as well as macroeconomic and structural issues. He graduated from University of Warsaw where he also obtained his PhD and habilitation, as well as from Purdue University (MA in Economics). He works as an associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. Prior to … <a href="https://case-research.eu/publications/the-repercussions-of-us-agri-food-tariffs-on-eu-regions/">Continued</a>

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Study on the repercussions of US agri-food tariffs on EU regions, prepared for the Commission for Natural Resources of the European Committee of the Regions, analyzes the effects of the EU–US tariff agreement of July 2025 on the European agri-food sector, with a particular focus on regional and sectoral dimensions, as well as the implications for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Based on economic modeling, trade data analysis, and a review of public policies, the report shows that:

total EU agri-food exports to the US could fall by approximately 23.5% (around EUR 7 billion annually),
impacts are highly sector-specific – the largest losses affect beverages, wine, olive oil, processed products, and pork,
EU-level averages mask the deep vulnerability of specialized regions and production clusters,
tariffs act as a “stress multiplier,” compounding existing structural challenges (e.g., high energy costs, long production cycles),
SMEs are most at risk of liquidity loss and forced market exit.

A central element of the report is seven case studies demonstrating the territorial concentration of impacts:

the live bovine and beef sector in the EU (low overall exposure, but high in certain regions),
the pig meat sector (near-total reduction of exports to the US in the modeled scenario),
Veneto – vulnerability of the wine sector to tariff increases,
Champagne-Ardenne – vulnerability of Champagne producers due to high dependence on the US market,
Zuid-Holland – the horticulture, flowers, and bulbs sector, heavily linked to US demand,
Andalusia – the olive oil and table olives sector, affected simultaneously by drought and cost pressures,
Nordrhein-Westfalen – the cocoa and chocolate sector, burdened by high energy costs and price competition.

The seven case studies indicate that the expected effects of US agri-food tariffs on EU exports of agri-food products are pronounced, and their impact may also be amplified by existing structural vulnerabilities stemming from the nature of the production process or regional specificity. The comparative evidence across the seven case studies shows that exposure varies fundamentally by sectoral trade structure. Case studies confirm that aggregate EU exposure to US agri‑food tariffs masks substantial regional and sectoral vulnerability. Export orientation and product specialisation are decisive determinants of tariff sensitivity. Sectoral structure and internal cost pressures amplify tariff impacts, often more strongly than trade shocks alone. The report shows that tariff changes generate both direct export losses and strong substitution effects, driven by discrimination between EU products and competing suppliers. The evidence suggests that regional and sectoral vulnerability interacts strongly with policy gaps. The report repeatedly notes that EU‑level instruments (CAP, OCM, cohesion funds) primarily support structural improvement, long‑term competitiveness, or climate and rural development goals – and not rapid compensation for sudden external shocks.

Based on these findings, the report presents a set of recommendations for EU, national, and local/regional levels, including:

Strengthening the EU’s capacity to respond to external trade shocks affecting agri-food regions
Adapting CAP crisis instruments to better reflect trade-related market disruptions
Promoting market diversification through trade diplomacy and targeted promotion measures
Supporting national-level measures to enhance competitiveness and absorptive capacity
Strengthening export promotion services and economic diplomacy initiatives
Facilitating product upgrading and movement up the value chain
Integrating trade-risk considerations into regional development and smart-specialisation strategies

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The repercussions of US agri-food tariffs on EU regions

Jan Hagemejer

Articles from this author:

Agnieszka Maj

Articles from this author:

Jan Sadowski

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Karolina Zubel

Articles from this author:

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The repercussions of US agri-food tariffs on EU regions

Jan Hagemejer

Articles from this author:

Agnieszka Maj

Articles from this author:

Jan Sadowski

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Karolina Zubel

Articles from this author:

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