Repercussions of the agri-food crisis at local and regional level

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24 Oct 2022

Labour, Migration and Social Policies

Izabela Marcinkowska

Jan Bazyli Klakla

Delia Agostinelli

Izabela Marcinkowska

Labour market and social policy Director
Izabela Marcinkowska is labour market and social policy Director, she is responsible for managing all research and projects in the areas of demography, labor, and social policy.

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Jan Bazyli Klakla

Director of Migration, Social Policy, and Development Cooperation
Dr Jan Bazyli Klakla is Director of Migration, Social Policy, and Development Cooperation at CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research. He oversees a broad portfolio of projects in these areas, including work on socio-legal studies and on higher education and science policy. Dr. Klakla has been involved in and has led numerous national and European research projects, including those funded by Horizon Europe, Norway Grants, and Polish National Science Center. His work also includes providing consulting and expert services to key European institutions such as the Committee of the Regions, the European Economic and Social Committee, and CEDEFOP (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training). He has served as an expert in the “Safe Krakow - Security Strategy for Krakow” program. Dr. Klakla is the editor of Law and Culture. Reconceptualization and Case Studies (Springer Nature, 2021) and the author of Law and Acculturation. Conceptualisation and Empirical Case Study: Slavic Migrants in Poland (Palgrave Macmillan, 2024) and Studying in Times of Crisis. Acculturation and Adaptation of Ukrainian Students at Kraków Higher Education Institutions amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia's Aggression against Ukraine (Brill, 2025). In recognition of his scholarly contributions, he was awarded first prize in the competition of the Association of the Philosophy of Law and Social Philosophy (IVR) – Polish Section for the best doctoral dissertation in the theory and philosophy of law. His research interests span migration, sociology of law, educational research, public policy analysis, customary law, and the methodology of social sciences.

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Delia Agostinelli

Economist
Delia Agostinelli is a Junior Economist at CASE. Graduated cum laude in Economics and Economic Policy at the University of Bologna with a thesis entitled “Impact of skilled migration on human capital formation and growth performance of source countries“. At CASE, Delia is involved in projects related to green economy, energy policies as well as … <a href="https://case-research.eu/publications/repercussions-of-the-agri-food-crisis-at-local-and-regional-level/">Continued</a>

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A study by CEPS and CASE entitled “Repercussions of the agri-food crisis at local and regional level”, requested by the European Committee of the Regions’ Commission for Natural Resources (CoR NAT), was published in October 2022.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has had a considerable impact on the EU food market, which had already been suffering from disrupted supply chains in the wake of the global COVID-19 pandemic. As most EU countries benefit from well-developed agricultural production, the availability of grains and food is not at stake in the European Union. However, certain EU countries show some trade dependencies on supplies from Ukraine and Russia, while others are also vulnerable to losing export destinations in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. Moreover, the ongoing war is continuing to have a considerable effect on prices.

The report aims to assess, in qualitative and quantitative terms, how the Russian invasion of Ukraine is affecting the EU countries and regions that are among the most impacted by the consequences of the war. It begins with an analysis of the crisis, reporting the causes, the figures of the shortages and the EU response. Subsequently, the study reviews Poland and Spain among the most negatively affected countries and regions, while Hungary and Germany are considered among the most resilient ones. In the last part of the study, the authors conclude with a list of lessons learned and some policy recommendations to address the challenges.

Overall, the analysis suggests that in terms of grain supplies Spain is the most exposed country to the devastating effects of the war, and Hungary the least, due to its self-sufficient grain production and export controls introduced since the outbreak of the war. However, export controls do not provide a long-term sustainable solution and maintaining resilience is proving to be difficult for all considered countries overall. Even Germany, which has strong production at local level and does not have a large trade dependence on Ukrainian supplies, still remains highly vulnerable to growing inflation, mainly stemming from the increased prices of energy and fertiliser supplies from Russia. Hungary, which is a self- sufficient grain producer, is also unable to avoid spikes in prices for the same reasons. The increase in prices, moreover, is hitting the affordability of basic consumer goods, particularly among those low-income households for whom affordability of proper meals was already an issue before the outbreak of the war.

As the study shows, having strong local production of grains and fertilisers is very helpful in providing sufficient local supplies of food and agricultural produce during such crises. In addition, diversifying both import and export markets by unlocking trade potential with like-minded countries, as well as moving towards smart specialisation, are very important for boosting resilience at the regional level. This, however, should not compromise environmental concerns.

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Repercussions of the agri-food crisis at local and regional level

Izabela Marcinkowska

Articles from this author:

Jan Bazyli Klakla

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Delia Agostinelli

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