Managing global monetary spillovers

The publication is a comprehensive analysis by the Economic Policy Research Center (EPRC). It investigates the multifaceted effects of the Ukraine war on Georgia's economic landscape, combining insights from historical developments, current vulnerabilities, and future prospects. Authored by Gigi Ormotsadze and Tedo Evgenidze, the report highlights the country’s integration into global systems, its dependency on external economic factors, and the challenges posed by political and economic shifts. The document explores key sectors such as trade, energy, and finance, and scrutinizes how inflows of migrants, financial assets, and geopolitical instability have created both opportunities and risks. It underscores the resilience Georgia has demonstrated in its recovery from crises like COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while noting systemic weaknesses such as high debt levels, governance inefficiencies, and a reliance on external markets. The report closes with targeted policy recommendations aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities and fostering sustainable growth.

The publication examines financing options for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) owned by Belarusians in the European Union through crowdfunding platforms. The paper notes that Belarusian entrepreneurs in Europe face restricted access to traditional bank loans, mainly due to a lack of collateral, sanctions, and short credit histories. For these businesses, crowdfunding platforms are emerging as an alternative way to raise capital from a broad base of investors. The authors discuss both the advantages (access to capital, lower financing costs, increased business visibility) and challenges (low investment liquidity, costs of crowdfunding campaigns) associated with this method of financing. The report also provides recommendations, such as launching information campaigns for Belarusian entrepreneurs in the EU and building their financial literacy, which could help them make better use of crowdfunding investment opportunities.

The report examines the potential impacts of EU enlargement, focusing on Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans. It highlights the benefits of a larger internal market, increased geopolitical influence, and improved food and energy security, while also addressing the financial and policy challenges, especially in agriculture and regional development. Enlargement would require major adjustments to the Common Agricultural Policy and Cohesion Policy, with Ukraine’s vast agricultural sector putting particular pressure on EU funds. Financial estimates suggest significant budget needs, leading the report to outline three scenarios: no new members until 2041, a single large expansion, or a phased approach over multiple budget cycles. The report underscores the critical role of local and regional authorities (LRAs) in managing these changes, recommending support and shared strategies to ensure a balanced, sustainable approach to EU growth.