VAT gap in Europe – report 2025

Project

1 Nov 2024 - ongoing

Fiscal Policies and Growth

Jan Hagemejer

Andrzej Robaszewski

Marta Kowerko-Urbańczyk

Magdalena Wiśniewska

Date:

1 Nov 2024 - ongoing
Client:

DG TAXUD
Project leader:

Syntesia
Partner:

CASE

Jan Hagemejer

President of CASE Management Board
Jan Hagemejer’s areas of expertise are international trade as well as macroeconomic and structural issues. He graduated from University of Warsaw where he also obtained his PhD and habilitation, as well as from Purdue University (MA in Economics). He works as an associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. Prior to … <a href="https://case-research.eu/project/vat-gap-in-europe-report-2025/">Continued</a>

Projects from this author:
Author’s projects
Andrzej Robaszewski

Director of Fiscal Policy Studies and Sustainable Development
Andrzej Robaszewski is Director of Fiscal Policy Studies and Sustainable Development. His areas of expertise also include EU economic governance, energy markets and ESG.

Projects from this author:
- The challenges of VAT beyond VAT in the Digital Age
  This study should consider possible improvements to the EU VAT system and assess their feasibility and likely consequences, based on the analysis of its current weaknesses, gaps, inefficiencies. As requested by the ToR, this requires a forward-looking analysis and prospective reflection, combined with and based on the retrospective assessment of the current situation. The study requires, on the one side, a thorough re-assessment of well-known problems of the EU VAT systems, which have been discussed for years by policymakers, scholars and in courts and tribunals, the solutions to which have already been long proposed in the academic as well as policy arena. On the other side, it requires a fresh view to identify new solutions to old problems, new problems and their possible solutions, as well as potential unknown problems, i.e. those that may appear in the future given the current economic, political and legal evolution and the megatrends of the EU and global society. Operationally, the activities needed to achieve the objectives of the study are straightforward. For each of the areas or angle of analysis, the study team will have to: Identify existing weaknesses and challenges of the EU VAT system, including those that may appear in the future given the likely evolution of the current situation. Design solutions to the problems identified. Assess the feasibility and consequences of the solutions identified.
- Wealth taxation, including net-wealth, capital and exit taxes
  The study aims to provide further information regarding the uptake and economic consequences of introducing wealth-related taxes. The purpose of the study is to shed further light firstly into recurrent wealth related taxes by (i) reviewing the conditions for the implementation of a net wealth tax and its consequences, to provide a detailed literature review on recurrent capital taxes in the EU and analyse their economic consequences; and secondly (ii) to provide an overview of existing non-recurrent wealth related taxes, namely, by providing an overview of capital taxes, inheritance and gift taxes and the existing exit tax provisions in the field of personal income taxation (including relevant statutory references), and how these interrelate with and complement the legal framework of taxing net wealth and capital gains. The study builds on previous research work mapping wealth taxes and estimating the consequences of their introduction. It is structured along two parts comprised of two and three workstreams respectively, related to the topics outlined above. Part 1 – Recurrent taxation, Workstream 1 – Net wealth taxes Part 1 – Recurrent taxation, Workstream 2 – Capital taxes Part 2 – Non-recurrent taxation, Workstream 3 – Capital taxes Part 2 – Non-recurrent taxation, Workstream 4 – Inheritance and gift taxes Part 2 – Non-recurrent taxation, Workstream 5 – Exit taxes
- Impact assessment support study “Taxation of the Financial Sector”
  This study shall provide input for the Impact assessment for a possible legislative proposal for the revision of the VAT exemption as laid down in the VAT Directive 2006/112/EC (1) and a possible legislative proposal for an EU taxation framework for the financial sector (2). The main purpose of this study is to provide an informed analysis of the potential problems arising from the current tax framework applicable to the financial sector in the EU (various sector-specific taxes and the VAT exemption) based on the analysis of the information already available and on the collection of relevant and more up-to-date evidence taking into account the current economic context, notably structural changes that are likely to persist over time, and specific features of the financial sector, notably, its regulatory and supervisory framework. On the basis of this analysis, the objective of the study is to provide insights supporting the potential development of options for an adequate EU taxation framework for the financial sector, which could include amending the current VAT Directive and establishing an EU taxation framework for the financial sector.
Author’s projects
Marta Kowerko-Urbańczyk

Communication Manager
Projects from this author:
- Project mBank-CASE
Magdalena Wiśniewska

Head of Business Development Team
Magdalena Wiśniewska is responsible for managing research projects at CASE. She holds MA in International Relations from the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń and MA in  Finance & Accounting from Warsaw School of Economics. During her career she gathered an extensive experience both in the public and private sector. She worked among others for Office … <a href="https://case-research.eu/project/vat-gap-in-europe-report-2025/">Continued</a>

Projects from this author:
Author’s projects

The study’s primary objective is to collect and supply economic information from existing official economic and statistical databases, as well as to gather primary data from national authorities. The study will also conduct macroeconomic analysis for country-specific VAT compliance and policy gap estimations and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, the study will include up to five case studies on specific countries and/or topics, to be proposed by the contractor in their technical offer.

Geographically, the study will cover all EU Member States, subject to quality checks for data reliability and robustness. This includes coverage of the United Kingdom during its time as an EU Member State. In addition, the study will test and implement, where possible, the inclusion of EU candidate countries and possible candidate countries, except for Türkiye. These countries include:

Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia1 (candidate countries at the stage of accession negotiations);
Ukraine, Moldova, and Bosnia and Herzegovina (Candidate countries for which the Council has decided to open accession negotiations);
Georgia (candidate country);
Kosovo (potential candidate country).

The study’s temporal scope will cover primarily a 6-year period, comprising:

a comprehensive review and revision of ‘full estimates’ for the first four years, i.e., for 2019-2022;
a new ‘full estimate’ for the fifth year, i.e., for 2023;
provisional ‘fast estimates’ for the sixth year based on simplified methodology for 2024.

In addition to the 6-year coverage, the study will provide a historical context by reporting on VAT compliance gaps from 2000 onwards, and VAT policy gap estimates, including its components, from 2016 onwards. This will provide a comprehensive timeline of these indicators. The study will also include a review of the economic and policy context, also including an outlook beyond this 6-year period.

Related projects

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VAT gap in Europe – report 2025

Date:

Client:

Project leader:

Partner:

Jan Hagemejer

Projects from this author:

Andrzej Robaszewski

Projects from this author:

Marta Kowerko-Urbańczyk

Projects from this author:

Magdalena Wiśniewska

Projects from this author:

Related projects

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