When the economic situation in the United States changes, the rest of the world, including Europe and Poland, quickly feels the effects.
In an article for Rzeczpospolita, our economist Oleg Gurshev analyzes how strong this impact is and which economies are most vulnerable to it.
What is the impact on Europe?
an increase in public spending in the United States leads to higher production; the strongest effect appears after about two years.
a country’s degree of trade and financial integration with the U.S. economy influences the strength of the spillover from U.S. economic shocks;
the most significant factors are: dependence on exports to the United States, participation in global supply chains, links to international financial markets, and the level of public debt ($)
economies more strongly integrated with the U.S. exhibit significantly stronger reactions—both positive and negative
increased uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy leads to a decline in output, rising inflation, and an overall reduction in interest rates in Poland
