Could the EU–Mercosur agreement become a genuine opportunity for the Polish and European economies? Prof. Jan Hagemejer discussed the significance of the agreement in the context of rising protectionism and shifting patterns of global trade in Dziennik.pl’s “Strategic Commentary” programme.
The programme, hosted by Szymon Glonek, brought together Prof. Jan Hagemejer, Prof. Stanisław Mazur, Janusz Piechociński and Gen. Adam Rapacki. The discussion began with the European Union’s trade agreement with the Mercosur countries and its potential importance for the European economy. The guests also addressed key economic, geopolitical and security challenges.
New trade directions in an era of protectionism
Prof. Jan Hagemejer placed the EU–Mercosur agreement in the broader context of changes taking place in global trade. At a time when more countries are introducing protectionist measures, agreements aimed at reducing trade barriers can play an important role in diversifying the European Union’s economic relations.
As he noted, this is particularly relevant when some of the EU’s traditional trade relationships, including those with the United States, are becoming more constrained. Mercosur cannot replace the US market, however. It is smaller, more distant, and the history of trade between Europe and the countries of the region is considerably shorter.
The agreement with Mercosur should therefore be viewed as one element of the EU’s wider strategy of developing trade relations with different regions of the world, rather than as a solution that will fundamentally transform the structure of European trade on its own.
New opportunities for European exporters
Prof. Hagemejer also highlighted the significant difference between the tariff barriers applied by the two sides.
For goods outside the agri-food sector, the European Union had already imposed relatively low tariffs on imports from Mercosur countries, averaging below 10 per cent.
Tariffs applied by Mercosur countries were considerably higher. For some products, they may amount to 20, 30 or even 40 per cent. Under the agreement, these tariffs are to be gradually reduced, ultimately to zero.
According to Prof. Hagemejer, this asymmetry means that exports from the European Union to Mercosur countries can be expected to grow more strongly than imports in the opposite direction. Reducing trade barriers may therefore create additional opportunities for European companies seeking to expand into South American markets.
No trade revolution should be expected
At the same time, Prof. Hagemejer cautioned against overstating the scale of the potential changes. Even if trade with Mercosur countries increases considerably – potentially even doubling in percentage terms – it will still account for a relatively small share of the European Union’s total trade.
The agreement may also benefit European consumers by providing broader access to lower-priced goods. However, a single trade agreement should not be expected to fundamentally alter Europe’s position in global trade. Its significance should be considered alongside the other trade agreements concluded by the European Union.
From trade wars to security challenges
The EU–Mercosur agreement was one of several topics discussed in “Strategic Commentary”. The conversation also covered trade wars, China’s growing role, the water crisis in Europe and its consequences for Poland, as well as illegal arms trafficking and the threats posed by organised criminal groups.
The full discussion is available in the “Strategic Commentary” programme on Dziennik.pl.
