The conference Eastern Partnership Countries in the Context of Russia’s War in Ukraine will bring together leading economists and regional experts to discuss the profound political and economic transformations reshaping Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.
Building upon the findings of the recently published CASE report Eastern European Economies Amidst Global and Regional Shocks – prepared within the OSF-funded project Increasing Economic Resilience of Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova – the event will examine how the economies of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine have responded to successive global and regional disruptions, from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
While the report offers a comprehensive overview of resilience and vulnerability across the region, the conference will go beyond its conclusions by confronting the report’s findings with the most recent economic developments. The discussions will focus on the economic consequences of Russia’s aggression, shifts in trade, energy, and finance, as well as broader geopolitical and integration challenges facing the Eastern Partnership region.
The presented papers will cover topics such as remittances and external shocks, the weaponization of energy and the EU’s energy security, growth prospects across Eastern Partnership economies, illicit financial flows, entrepreneurship and sanctions in Central Asia, the war economy in Ukraine, technological resilience, and financial sector stability. Special attention will be given to developments in Ukraine and Belarus, as well as to the changing economic dynamics of the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
By combining regional and country-specific perspectives, the conference aims to provide an updated assessment of economic developments and policy responses in the Eastern Partnership countries and their prospects for recovery and integration in the post-war context.
The conference will be held in a hybrid format – in person at the Staszic Palace of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Nowy Świat 72, Warsaw, and online via Microsoft Teams.
The detailed programme:
09:00 – 09:30 Opening address (Jan Hagemejer)
Presentation of the OSF project agenda and outputs (Marek Dabrowski)
09:30 – 11:00 Session 1 (Regional analysis)
- Karsten Staehr ‘Growth experiences and prospects of the Eastern Partnership countries’
- Tihomira Kostova, Tsvetomir Nikolov ‘Illicit financial flows’
- Nurlan Rahimli ‘Do External Shocks Reshape Remittances? Evidence from Post-Soviet Economies’
- Richard Pomfret ‘The Middle Corridor and Eastern Partners’
- Mikhail Krutikhin ‘Weaponization of Russia’s Energy Exports and the EU Energy Security’
11:00 – 11:30 Coffee break
11:30 – 13:00 Session 2 (Southern Caucasus and Central Asia)
- Haykaz Fanyan ‘Scaling Up Trade Potential in The South Caucasus’
- Giorgi Ormotsadze ‘The Georgian Economy Since 2022’
- Serik Iskakov ‘Sanctions, Relocation and Entrepreneurship Development: Evidence from Kazakhstan’
- Yelzhas Kadyr ‘Russian Firm Entry and Labor Market Dynamics in Kazakhstan’
13:00 – 13:50 Lunch break
13:50 – 15:20 Session 3 (Ukraine and Belarus)
- Dmytro Boyarchuk ‘The Ukrainian War Economy’
- Oleksii Shpanel-Yukhta ‘Technological Resilience and Technological Inequality in Wartime: The Case of Ukraine’
- Alexander Sicheneder ‘Balancing Efficiency and Public Acceptance: How to design Carbon Revenue Recycling in Ukraine’
- Lev Lvovskiy ‘Economic Developments in Belarus’
- Anastasiya Luzgina ‘Labor Market Dynamics and IT Sector Development in Belarus under the Pressure of Mass Migration, 2020–2024
15:20 – 16:00 Keynote Address (Anders Aslund)
16:00 – 16:10 Conference summary (Marek Dabrowski)
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