Presentation of the Financial Stress and the Economic Sensitivity Forecasts
CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research
THE FINANCIAL STRESS
THE ECONOMIC SENSITIVITY FORECASTS
Time: Friday, 9 May 2014, 14:30
dr. Maciej Krzak, Grzegorz Poniatowski, Katarzyna Wąsik
About a year and a half ago CASE launched a project to compile the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI). The aim was to build a tool for forecasting stress that could influence economic and financial prospects in the economies of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC).
The study is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis method. The indices used for the forecasts were measured by the volatility of main macroeconomic and financial market variables. Ex-post evaluation and a strong correlation of the indices with GDP growth and OECD Composite Leading Indicator prompted us to show the results to the wider public.
During the CASE Policy Research Seminar our experts will present forecasts for the FSI and the ESI for the period 2014-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
We encourage you to read the findings of this study, which were published as CASE Network Report 117: Measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity in CEE countries.
*** PLEASE CONFIRM YOUR ATTENDANCE BY by May 8th, 2014 ***