commodity prices, Dutch disease, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, exchange rate, FSU, growth, oil, Post-communist transition and development issues, CASE Reports, CASE Network Studies and Analyses, transition

Dutch Disease in Former Soviet Union: Witch-Hunting


This study seeks to determine the extent to which countries of the former Soviet Union are "infected" by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises.  First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources.