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Merkel, on visit to Hungary, seeks to fend off Russian influence

German leader and Hungary's Viktor Orban present a united front on Ukraine, despite Orban's overtures to Moscow

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban agreed Monday that economic sanctions imposed against Russia for its alleged meddling in Ukrainian affairs remained an essential pillar of Europe’s united front, tentatively easing Western concerns that the Kremlin was gaining traction in a critical European capital.

Since last summer, the West has grown increasingly anxious over the possibility that Orban, the leader of Hungary’s center-right Fidesz party, was drifting toward a like-minded nationalist ally in Russian President Vladimir Putin. In July, Orban declared his intention to transform Hungary into what he called an "illiberal democracy," citing Russia as his model. He has since found support from Moscow as he stares down a virulent pro-Western protest movement that accuses him of creeping authoritarianism and of curtailing civil liberties at home.

But Orban and Merkel, who was on her first visit to Budapest since Orban was first elected in 2010, reaffirmed at a post-meeting press conference their commitment to the sanctions regime imposed over Russia's purported role in supporting armed separatists in eastern Ukraine — a charge Moscow denies.

“European unity has great value for us in this case … even if our starting points are perhaps different,” said Merkel, who did most of the talking. “Europe was always strong when such issues could be addressed collectively.”

The talks appeared to resolve Orban's waffling on the subject of sanctions, which must be renewed unanimously by their deadline this coming spring. But the Hungarian leader made it clear that his calculations differed from the rest of Europe's, as he reiterated that Hungary was far more reliant on Russian gas than other European Union members.

Hungary’s gas supply agreement with Russia happens to expire in 2015, which has raised the specter Hungary could be the spoiler for the entire European sanctions program. “Our exposure in this respect is greater by orders of magnitude than that of Germany,” Orban said on Monday. “This is a problem. This is actually the biggest problem of this year.”

And there was little indication the two had made headway on Orban’s domestic policies, which have drawn comparisons to Moscow’s crackdown on civil liberties and earned the Hungarian leader the moniker “little Putin.” Rights groups such as Amesty International say Orban has launched office raids, ordered questionable audits and publicly smeared a wide range of media outlets and civil society groups — part of what Orban has termed his "illiberal democracy."

Ahead of Merkel's visit, thousands of anti-Orban protesters rallied outside Hungary’s parliament on Sunday carrying European Union flags and signs in German that read “Angela! Please deliver us from evil! We want to stay EU citizens!”

On Monday, Orban was defiant of Merkel's criticism on that front, commenting rather opaquely that “if someone wants to say that democracy is necessarily liberal, they demand privileges for an ideology that we cannot grant."

Analysts said these disagreements are likely to take a backseat to more pressing concerns, like Ukraine. Despite Monday's progress, European leaders are still uneasy about an upcoming visit to Budapest by Russian President Vladimir Putin slated for Feb. 17. The visit, which comes in contravention of an unspoken agreement among EU members not to hold bilateral meetings with Moscow while the war in Ukraine rages, seems intended to fuel a nationalist narrative that Europe and Russia are competing for Hungary's favor.

On the cover of this week's issue of the Hungarian magazine HVG, Merkel and Putin are depicted straddling opposite ends of a seesaw shaped like Hungary, bearing the caption “Playground.”

But Christopher Hartwell, the president of the Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw, said Orban's posturing seemed largely rhetorical, possibly aimed at currying domestic favor at a moment when his party, Fidesz, has seen approval ratings plummet. The country has been floundering economically, and "illiberal democracy" has been grating on civil society more and more.

“Orban's talk plays on the idea of Hungarian exceptionalism — a sense of independence, that they walk their own line, have their own language and heritage,” Hartwell said.

At the same time, he may also be hoping to create more leverage vis-a-vis Europe. Budapest is currently negotiating with Germany on the taxation of German companies that operate out of Hungary — including several major automakers, — and with the rest of the EU on migration and Hungary's entrance into the eurozone.

And despite the gas lines from Russia, Germany is by far Hungary's largest trading partner. According to an opinion poll from the Nezopont Institute released ahead of Merkel's visit, 32 percent of Hungarians consider Germany their country's most important ally, while only 7 percent named Russia.

"Hungary has always been an enigma," Hartwell said. "But when push comes to shove, Orban won't be in Putin's camp. Hungary has wanted to be part of the eurozone for years, not part of some neo-Warsaw pact with Russia."

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